Prior to October of 2025, our partners at Metabolic conducted an in-depth regional analysis of North Carolina's Mountains and Piedmont regions— the bioregion at the heart of the Resilient Futures Co-Lab. What follows is a summary of their findings across seven interconnected systems within the region: Biodiversity and Land Use, Water, Energy, Materials, Health and Wellbeing, Society, and Value.

The intention behind this research was two-fold: to provide a measurable foundation for where the region currently stands and a starting off point to spark input and conversation with stakeholders throughout the region on this research. This research and conversations kicked off our thinking around transition pathways, investment priorities, and the kinds of initiatives most likely to build lasting resilience in our region.

The Region We're Working In

The Mountain and Piedmont regions of North Carolina are home to nearly 8 million people — about 75% of the state's total population — and together represent 78% of North Carolina's GDP. This is the bioregion we care about most: a place of extraordinary ecological richness, deep community roots, and mounting pressures.

Our area of focus spans 59 counties stretching from the Appalachian highlands through the Piedmont crescent, anchored by cities like Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, and Durham. It sits within the broader Appalachia and Allegheny Interior Forests bioregion — one of the most biologically diverse temperate forest regions in North America.

Map showing the Mountains and Piedmont counties

Seven Interconnected Systems Were Researched

The research that follows looked at seven systems: Biodiversity and Land Use, Water, Energy, Materials, Health and Wellbeing, Society, and Value. These seven systems make up how Metabolic frames the seven pillars of a circular economy.

Each System Received a "Health Assessment"

Metabolic gave each of these seven systems within the region an initial "health assessment" or colored verdict. You will find a summary health assessment at the end of each system's analysis.

Summary of Health Assessment Findings

Together, these systems tell the story of a region with tremendous natural and human assets and need for a different kind of investment. Below is a snapshot summary of the health assessment of each system.

01: Biodiversity and Land Use: At Risk but Recoverable

Forests cover nearly 60% of the land in our region. The mountains are a stronghold for biodiversity, with 92% of high-biodiversity areas occurring in forest land and 81% of those areas under some form of protection or management.

But the picture is more complicated beneath the surface. Between 2001 and 2019, the region lost roughly 220,000 acres (89,000 hectares) of forest cover while urban land expanded by 289,000 acres (117,000 hectares). Deciduous forests fell sharply. Agricultural land contracted, with pasture giving way to development. And from 2000 to 2020, North Carolina experienced a net 1.7% decline in tree cover.

Land Use 2001 and Land Use 2019 maps (side by side)

The Mountain region is particularly vulnerable, where conservation efforts are often fragmented and biodiversity areas face pressure from mining, development, and disconnected ownership. Nearly 79% of forestland is privately owned, and 1 in 5 areas with high endemism remain unmanaged.

Only 16.6% of the region's land is used for farming, and most of that — 80% — is pasture for livestock. Just 1.1% grows direct food crops, and the region currently meets only about 13% of its own caloric needs. With 95% of farmland rain fed, drought vulnerability is real. Yet there's genuine opportunity here: converting just 35% of pasture to mixed crop production could make the region food self-sufficient. Between 2008 and 2016, eco-friendly farming methods quadrupled — a sign that the appetite for change exists.

01: BIODIVERSITY AND LAND USE HEALTH ASSESSMENT:  YELLOW

At Risk but Recoverable

The region's natural capital is still strong. But human systems such as extractive land management, low soil health in croplands, and fragmented conservation, are eroding its regenerative potential. A shift toward regenerative land stewardship is within reach.

02: Water: Abundant but Fluctuating and Vulnerable

North Carolina is a water-rich state. Its rivers, rainfall, and groundwater have long sustained agriculture, forests, and industry. However, recent natural disasters, such as Hurricane Helene significantly impacting Western North Carolina, has showcased vulnerabilities.

As of October 2025, nearly 84% of the state's land area was abnormally dry or in moderate to severe drought. Drought cycles have become more frequent and unpredictable, tied to climate-driven disruptions in weather patterns. With 95% of agricultural land rain fed, farmers are highly exposed to these swings.

Water quality is also a growing concern. Nutrient pollution from nitrogen and phosphorus is highest in urbanized and livestock-intensive watersheds, with the Charlotte watershed showing the greatest concentrations. Mountain watersheds show sedimentation linked to erosion and deforestation. More than 80 water utilities across the state have reported contaminants above health-based safety levels, including uranium, PFAS, nitrates, and disinfection byproducts.

02: WATER HEALTH ASSESSMENT:  YELLOW

Abundant but Fluctuating and Vulnerable

The bottom line is water is physically abundance in this region yet institutionally fragile. The system's resilience depends on future good governance and land stewardship.

03: Energy: Transitioning, Unevenly

North Carolina's energy system is in motion. Coal plants are closing. Solar is growing faster here than anywhere else in the Southeast. The state ranks 5th in the nation for both nuclear and solar energy production. In 2023, nuclear power accounted for 33% of the state's net electricity generation.

But the transition is incomplete and uneven. The state imports most of its primary energy — especially natural gas and transportation fuel — leaving it exposed to external price shocks. Centralized, water-intensive power generation links energy reliability to water availability. Outdated housing stock, especially in rural areas, locks households into high costs and inefficiency. Rural families relying on fuel oil and wood face both pollution and price volatility.

Perhaps most importantly: energy poverty is growing even as renewables expand. The transition is being driven by technology, not equity. North Carolina ranks among the 10 states with the highest electricity consumption and fourth for residential sector electricity use.

03: ENERGY HEALTH ASSESSMENT:  YELLOW

Transitioning, Unevenly

True resilience will mean decentralizing energy generation, retrofitting inefficient homes, and ensuring that the benefits of clean power reach communities — not just utilities. The state is moving in the right direction, but the pace and the distribution of benefits both need attention.

04: Materials: Extractive and Linear

The region moves enormous quantities of material — timber, minerals, construction aggregates, biomass. But very little of the value from these flows stays local. Timber leaves as raw product rather than finished goods. Minerals fuel infrastructure elsewhere while scarring landscapes here. Recycling, reuse, and repair infrastructure is fragmented and underfunded.

North Carolina is known as the Furniture Capital of the World, with over 850 furniture manufacturers and 32,000 workers mostly concentrated in the Piedmont region. Yet that heritage of craft and manufacturing has hollowed out, replaced by throughput economies that treat materials as disposable inputs.

Households are the largest source of food waste in the region, generating about 734,800 tons per year — 40% of the total. Biomass makes up 38% of all material flowing through the region, well above the global average of 20%, reflecting the deep land-based character of this place.

04: MATERIALS HEALTH ASSESSMENT:  RED

Extractive and Linear

The region has genuine assets — abundant biomass, skilled labor, and emerging innovation clusters. But until material flows and production aligns with circular principles, the economy will continue to extract more than it regenerates. The wealth of this land can be invested rather than spent, but that requires intentional redesign of key value chains.

05: Health and Wellbeing: Unequal and Strained

Health in our region follows geography and inequality. Urban centers have hospitals, specialists, and higher wages. Mountain and rural counties face long drives for basic care and chronic shortages of providers.

Nine rural counties in the Mountain and Piedmont regions classify as "maternity care deserts" — with zero hospitals offering OB/GYN care and zero OB/GYN providers. Most counties in the region face primary care shortages, with some having as few as one primary care physician per 4,000 residents. Mission Hospital in Asheville is the only Level II trauma center and the largest hospital across the entire mountain region.

People per Primary Care Physician chart

Substance use and mental health are significant challenges, particularly in Western North Carolina. Yet, North Carolina has recently been turning the tide on drug overdose deaths — a meaningful sign that community-led harm reduction approaches can work.

Interestingly, wellbeing scores in mountain communities often remain higher than in cities — supported by cleaner air, nature access, and strong community ties. The system's resilience lies not only in institutions, but in people: in their ability to care for each other where services fall short.

05: HEALTH & WELLBEING HEALTH ASSESSMENT: RED

UNEQUAL AND STRAINED

Health here depends as much on environment and social cohesion as on medical access. Poverty and inequality are persistent, and the gap between what communities need and what the healthcare system provides is wide. Closing that gap will require place-based, community-centered approaches, not just clinical infrastructure.

06: Society: Mixed Resilience

North Carolina is one of the fastest-growing states in the country. Migration is reshaping communities: urban centers like Charlotte and Asheville attract investment and talent, while rural and mountain counties face persistent poverty, low wages, and limited services.

Poverty rates are highest — between 18% and 25% — in mountain and southern Piedmont counties, even despite relatively low unemployment rates of 3-4%. Wages cluster in metros; many rural counties earn less than half the urban weekly average. Urban counties show lower poverty rates but higher inequality.

Housing is under enormous pressure. Home values rose 61% between 2019 and 2022. There is a statewide shortage of roughly 208,000 affordable rental units for extremely low-income households. About 28% of all North Carolina households are severely cost-burdened, spending 30% or more of their income on housing. For extremely low-income households, 72% spend more than half their income on housing.

The aftermath of Hurricane Helene added another layer of fragility: with only 1 in 200 homes in Western North Carolina carrying flood insurance, the storm turned a climate event into a financial crisis for many families.

06: SOCIETY HEALTH ASSESSMENT: YELLOW

Mixed Resilience

Cultural identity and community ties remain strong — especially in the mountains. But they are under pressure from gentrification, tourism, and displacement. Without addressing equity, affordability, and local governance, the social fabric risks fraying. This is a region rich in character but increasingly insecure in footing.

07: Value: Concentrated and Leaky

The Mountains and Piedmont regions generate significant economic output — a total GDP of $626 billion. But where that value goes matters as much as how much is produced.

An estimated $114 billion in value leaves the region annually through corporate profits, rents, dividends, and external procurement. Most profits and investment concentrate in Charlotte's finance sector and flow outward rather than reinvesting in local systems. Wages lag behind productivity. Agriculture and forestry represent just 0.5% of GDP, despite accounting for a large share of land — reflecting how little value is currently captured from the region's most abundant assets.

Inequality in spending mirrors inequality in income. The top 20% of households account for 52% of all spending on financial services and insurance, while the bottom 20% devote around 20% of their expenditures to housing alone — more than any other income group spends on any single category.

07: VALUE HEALTH ASSESSMENT: RED

Concentrated and Leaky

The region generates wealth but does not sufficiently retain or redistribute it. Ecosystem services — carbon storage, water regulation, biodiversity — are real and material, but largely uncaptured in economic terms. A regenerative value system would circulate capital locally, through community finance, cooperatives, and land-based industries that retain earnings and jobs in the region. That system is not yet here.

What This Research Means for RFC

Taken together, this research reveals a region of extraordinary potential that is currently organized around extraction rather than regeneration. Natural capital is still strong, but human and economic systems are eroding it.

This is why place-based, integrated approaches to transition matter. Not siloed interventions in one system, but coordinated investment across land, water, energy, materials, health, and economy guided by communities who know this place and are already doing the work.

The research Metabolic conducted in fall 2025 is not a diagnosis of what's wrong. It's a map of where we are and a starting point for the conversations, investments, and transitions that will shape what comes next.